The Lindy Effect and COVID 19
The Lindy Effect and COVID 19
by
Mark R. Payne DC
Seems like every time I check my news feed there’s something about the “new normal”. Pundits tell us every day that things just wont ever be the same. Ever. The virus will be with us forever. Rapid virus mutations. No lasting immunity. The number of cases keeps increasing. It’s bad news they tell us. So we better just get used to wearing masks. And eating at home. And social distancing. And school lock downs. And a dying economy. Because it’s never, ever gonna be any different. Because this time Buster, the good times are really over for good. To all of which I say….NOT BLOODY LIKELY!
Ever heard of the Lindy Effect? It’s kind of an obscure concept that’s been around for some time and today, I think it’s worth taking a look at. Basically, the Lindy Effect states that the longer something has been around, the more likely it is to stay around. Of course, this isn’t a perfect, all encompassing statement. The Lindy Effect refers to things which tend to be somewhat non perishable in nature. It’s doesn’t apply to that two week old carton of milk in your fridge. Or the life of any of one of us as individuals.
“The Longer Something Has Existed, The More Likely It Will Continue To Exist.”
Basically the Lindy Effect says that: The longer something has been in existence, the more likely it is to continue to exist. So...while it may not have much to do with the stuff in your fridge, it most definitely applies to other, less fragile things. Examples might include the Empire State building, western civilization, written language, Stonehenge, etc. And while it’s not really an absolute law, all of those things have been around for a long time and most likely will be for a while longer. You probably wouldn’t want to bet against any of the above being here tomorrow or even next year! Here are some examples more related to our current circumstances. Notice what they all have in common.
In 1918-19 we had an unbelievable worldwide Flu epidemic ( H1/N1- aka Spanish Flu) which killed between 20 and 50 million people worldwide and had a mortality rate of 20%. Compare that to Covid 19 which has killed about 674,000 people to date and has a mortality rate that is almost certainly under 1%. And don’t forget Bubonic Plague (1300s-1600s). Polio (1940s-50s). And Asian Flu (1957-58). And SARS (2002-03). And MERS (2012– Present). Oh and Smallpox and Yellow Fever, Diphtheria, Typhoid, and three separate waves of Cholera (1832-66).
So have I managed to cheer you up with all these happy facts and figures? No? Well you should be feeling pretty happy about now, because all of the above are just great examples are just the Lindy Effect on display. Because in spite of all of this tragedy, we have survived. And now we find ourselves in the middle of another very rough patch with a scary, invisible and largely unknown virus. And when you think about it, the future is kind of the same way. It’s unknown. We can’t see it. And to be honest, it can be kind of scary. But it really shouldn’t be.
I wanted to write this editorial because it seems like the media is getting things WAY out of perspective. Whether that’s intentional or not, I will leave up to you. I know some of you reading this have already suffered very real and painful losses. And unfortunately, there’s more to come before we, as a nation are out of this mess. But if we can, just for a moment, back up a take a longer perspective on this pandemic, things start to look a bit different. And with that in mind, I hope you will take just one thing away from this message. As a species and as a nation, we are incredibly resilient. The proof is that we are all here right now, in spite of an unbelievable history of human tragedies. And along the way, we’ve raised our kids (and in my case grand kids! ), grown as a people and built a nation that is the envy of most of the world. Every day, I am thankful for a life that is good and mostly blessed. And I hope you will be too. Is everything perfect? Nope. Not at all. But the truth is that 99+ percent of the people in this country are NOT sick or dying. Quite the contrary, we are surviving, and thriving and really only suffering some temporary inconveniences.
I know it seems like forever, but we’ve only been in this fight for about six months. And as a nation we’ve already made it through a whole lot worse. So, the next time you read some doom and gloom article about how we’re all just going to have to embrace “the New Normal”, don’t listen to ‘em. Good things are happening. Therapeutics for the very ill are improving. Hospital stays are decreasing. And the herd immunity process is marching forward as Mother Nature works this out. That’s all good. And most importantly, we’re still standing. And there’s a reason for that. It’s called the Lindy Effect.